Neither Israel nor Iran has officially confirmed such an agreement, and hostilities continue to escalate violently. Trump’s announcement, lacking concrete details, was categorically denied by Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that Tehran would only cease its actions if Israel stopped its “illegal aggression.” This suggests that Trump’s assertion may have been premature, perhaps an attempt to influence the narrative during a period of intense military escalation.
The past few days have seen a dramatic confrontation between the two regional powers, with a heavy toll of deaths and destruction, and reciprocal attacks involving both Tehran and Tel Aviv, as well as numerous Israeli centers. The highest price of this conflict is being paid by civilians. The number of casualties is unfortunately constantly evolving, with figures varying depending on the source given the difficulty of verification. Currently, there are hundreds dead and thousands injured on both sides, with a higher death toll reported for Iran.
After more than a week of clashes, Israel has intensified its attacks, targeting symbolic centers of Iranian power. On Benjamin Netanyahu’s order, Israeli air strikes targeted entities linked to internal repression and the security of the Islamic Republic. Yesterday, Israel claimed to have struck government and repressive targets in the heart of Tehran with “unprecedented force,” including those of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the “regime’s repressive bodies,” claiming the killing of several Iranian generals and hundreds of Revolutionary Guards. Sensitive targets included the infamous Evin Prison in Tehran, a symbol of detention for activists and political prisoners; the Sarallah base, an important IRGC command unit involved in suppressing anti-regime protests; the headquarters of the Basij forces, the dreaded “moral police”; and the Alborz corps, a force responsible for maintaining regime stability. The intelligence protection center, police forces headquarters, and the Islamic Republic’s Ideological Command Center were also hit.
In the last two days, explosions have been reported in various areas of Iran and severe damage to infrastructure in several cities, including the western outskirts of Ahvaz. The Alborz Electricity Distribution Company confirmed power cuts in the Karaj region, and numerous reports on social networks and Radiofarda reported blackouts and water supply interruptions in various areas of Iran. Israeli forces then struck the Fordow enrichment facility again, which had already been the target of a massive American attack two days prior.
In response to the aggression, Iran immediately launched a heavy missile attack against Israel, causing widespread damage to infrastructure and buildings in at least ten locations, including Carmel, Haifa, the Tel Aviv area, and the northern coastal plain, in the Ashdod and Lachish areas. Three days ago, the United States escalated its involvement and intervened alongside Israel with Operation “Midnight Hammer,” striking Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. Although Trump spoke of “complete obliteration,” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that these facilities contained little to no nuclear material, and the extent of the damage remains uncertain.
Despite Israeli and American claims of having reduced Iranian launch capabilities, Israeli intelligence itself acknowledges that Iran’s offensive capabilities have remained largely intact. This indicates that the military strength of both actors is considerable, and their offensive potential is not exhausted. Iran continues to deny pursuing nuclear weapons, while Israel is widely believed to possess an undeclared arsenal. The persistent concern is that Iran, with its expertise, could quickly resume nuclear activities and produce a bomb without inspections, creating a long-term danger to regional stability.
Iran reacted to the US attacks by denouncing them as “illegal and criminal” and threatening retaliation, including the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, Iran launched 10 missiles at the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, the largest military base in the Middle East and the “command center of the US Air Force” in the region. Although the base had been evacuated, there were no casualties, and Qatar intercepted most of the missiles (19 in total, with only one impact causing no significant damage), the attack nonetheless highlighted Iran’s ability to hit strategic US targets. Iran’s decision not to cause casualties, despite having the capability, could be a signal to avoid uncontrolled escalation. Furthermore, as reported by Israeli sources, American bases in Syria and Iraq were hit, and an Iranian drone even reached Jordan.
Gulf countries like Bahrain and Kuwait have temporarily closed their airspaces, and some airlines have suspended flights in the region. Putin, who met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Moscow, condemned the attacks against Iran but offered no concrete military support. The United Nations, for its part, warned against a “spiral of retaliation.”
In summary, while Trump has declared an end to hostilities, the reality on the ground, the lack of official confirmations, and the conflicting statements from the main actors indicate a situation that is still extremely volatile and uncertain. The conflict highlights the complex web of interests, military capabilities, and diplomatic strategies at play in the Middle East, foreshadowing a very precarious future for regional stability.
