On the two narrow sides of the Colosseum there are two large arches, the Porta Triumphalis and the Porta Libitinaria – the gates of Triumphs and Funerals. In ancient times, after the fight the gladiators could exit from the first door if they had won, from the second if they had lost, the Porta Libitinaria, and they were dragged out dead to their funeral. Well, the President of the United States Donald Trump on April 2nd went down into the arena challenging the whole world, friends and enemies. The whole world except his “partner in crime”, Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovic Putin. It remains to be seen which door he will exit from in the end, obviously from a metaphorical point of view. He called that day Liberation Day, be careful that for him it does not turn into Libitinarius Day!
In the meantime we wait for that coming true or not, let’s make a brief cogitation. We think that the Second World War began in 1939 with the German-Russian invasion of Poland. Formally it is true. However, if we analyze the facts well, it began much earlier, exactly at the moment in which a man called Mr. Adolph Hitler with his personal project of world challenging and domination rose to power. We well remember him in the black and white documentaries in front of the Triumphal Arch in Paris: all the subsequent misfortunes were the consequence of this fundamental descent into the arena. It was inevitable to then arrive at the war waged in 1939, of course, but undeclared wars were already occurring in the form of various types of violence: against people, groups, nations, all considered inferior and, therefore, subjugatable, conquerable, eliminable for the achievement of his demonic world domination. Then, he too has stepped his Libitinaria gate.
Today, we wonder when the third world war will begin. Or rather, someone instills this fear, or they themselves fear that the third world war could break out, and someone else warns us, so that we remain still and tolerate, to do nothing, or to not take initiatives that could trigger this war, and someone else has even gone so far as to warn us not to gamble on the war, we who have done nothing, except watching, helping or defending ourselves from those who have broken into our home. Wasn’t it Mr. Trump who warned Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the heroic Ukrainian president, telling him: “you are gambling on the Third World War!”, for his obsession in wanting to defend himself whatever-it-takes from the Russian invasion?
Well, all these people, unconsciously or consciously do not realize (or pretend to do so) that the war has already begun at the very moment in which people like Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump themselves entered the arena and rose to power, legally or not, as Mr. Hitler did, with their plan for world hegemony, with their crooked behavior: Mr. Putin when he thought he could annex Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and Mr. Trump, for now only verbally, when he said he wanted to annex Greenland, Panama and Canada at all costs, and when they began to negotiate among themselves, discovering so much affinity that they resonate like a tuning fork, to divide up the world.
The Third World War will not break out! Because it has already “broken out”. From the point of view of a fought war, globally, it perhaps will never break out, as it did not break out during the entire Cold War; and if it does break out, it will do so at a later time. However, with the premises, with the behaviors, with the verbal and physical violence, with the demolition of democratic institutions and the attacks on the checks and balances, with the subjugation of the judiciary, with the partial annexations and the attempts at total annexations, it has already broken out. All these are pieces, separate from each other, of a single plan that will inevitably lead to a confrontation, because nationalists are like that, at the beginning they ally themselves (as Mr. Hitler and Mr. Stalin did) but then they clash, and involve everyone else. Then, only then will those who will be there notice the outbreak of the Third World War, and will delude themselves that it broke out then, instead it is already underway today. This time, however, it will not be limited to a few nations, it will be global.
The day after April 2, at the moment in which the tariffs, which Russia was spared, caused in the markets another nefarious piece of this war, Mr. Putin rejoiced with his “partner in crime”, Mr. Trump. Like a chain reaction, the financial attacks launched against almost every country in the world, penguin islands included, are causing and will cause equal and opposite retaliations that will ultimately trigger further uncontrolled reactions, capable of bringing everyone to their knees, including the unwary initiator and his country. And Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich can only rejoice.
How do you get out of it?
Von Klausevitz said that war is politics made by other means, and the tariff war does not escape this logic, it too is politics made by other means. If an intelligent and prepared bully provokes us with a complex and well-studied attack plan, we must be very careful, there is a risk that he may prevail. However, it does not seem that Mr. Trump’s plan, comparing it with all the actions he has undertaken so far, is complex and carefully studied, nor does it seem that its author is a great mind from Harvard. The cliché is the classic one of two-bit bullies: terrorize the adversaries by striking someone individual to scare all the others, then offer a compromise to remove the threat and move on to collect the protection money from everyone: Cosa Nostra docet.
Doesn’t Mr. Putin do the same, with all the brutality he is capable of, only to then go and beat his chest with a candle in his hand like our Corleonesi mafia bosses did? Isn’t Mr. Trump doing this, at least for now verbally, insulting and intimidating his supposedly sacred guest? With the stick and the carrot. That’s what all street bullies have done since the dawn of time.
But when do bullies fail? When they fall short to terrorize individuals if individuals band together to form a common front. This is the exact attitude of those who employ the power of reason: avoiding panic, associating with other poor souls and responding calmly, rationally and firmly to the bully’s threats. So we must look for allies. Who are our allies and where can we find them? Aside from the natural members of the European Union and the democratic members of the Western bloc who do not have a yellow-painted mane, our allies are, on the one hand, the markets, which have already given a strong and spontaneous response by penalizing Mr. Trump’s moves and will continue to do so, not forgiving him for driving without a license a machine that is slipping out of his control. And on the other hand, our allies are consumers, especially those in the United States, who are partly Mr. Trump’s voters themselves: those who will have to pay for the president’s actions, and pay dearly, those who have imprudently elected, or not adequately opposed this unlikely and ill-assorted stand-in for Ronald Reagan.
Speaking of the US consumer, it is necessary to offer some clarification for those who are not familiar with that market: In the US, consumers already pay a high price for goods of European origin, and they do so knowingly. First of all, because for a European product to reach the final customer, several steps must be passed, almost doubling the price (a doubling that does not go into the pockets of the European producer but into those of the US intermediaries: the US main victims of the tariffs). Some examples? A kilo of Parmigiano in Italy costs about 20 euros, in the US today about 44 euros, i.e. with a markup of 24 per kg which corresponds to a plus of 120%. A bottle of Brunello di Montalcino in Italy costs around 30 euros, in the United States it cannot be less than 50 euros, with a markup of 20 euros equal to a plus of 66%. A Ferrari California, which in Italy costs around 200 thousand euros, in the USA is around 327 thousand euros, with a mark-up of 127 thousand euros equal to a plus of 63.5%. The list can go on. Secondly, in the United States the consumer consciously pays the increases because he is a wealthy buyer, who seeks renowned quality, and adequately compensates for the greater performance of the products he knows well and loves: a buyer who would never settle for a fake, falsely Italian or “autarchic” product, because he demands the original, which, for him, is a “status symbol”, he is not primarily looking to save money.
Do you really think that someone who can spend 44 euros for a kilo of Parmigiano, 50 euros for a bottle of Brunello, or 327 thousand euros for a Ferrari, if he really wants these products, could be scared of a 20% increase in price due to tariffs? Obviously, no one likes to spend money like water, but the consumers of elite products, such as the U.S. and Canadian ones, when they buy a European product, do not regard paying for quality as a waste of money, and therefore they would not stop buying it because of an increase in price, in fact in some cases they would feel more privileged to be able to afford such exclusivity. On the other end, even if the U.S. consumer will not regard paying more for quality a waste of money, they will be very angry for Trump’s tariffs. So calm down, at least for the high-quality “made in Europe” products, which are a large slice, because the lesser quality ones, with anonymous brands, or not trendy ones they are mass-produced by China.
In these days when we are witnessing the entrance of the commander in chief, from the Porta Triumphalis of the arena, decorated with all his geopolitical ignorance, mixed with the foolishness of the beginner, in front of the applauding audience of his stupefied sect and incapable of any minimal critical reflection, while we see him, squalidly for a President of the United States, show the product of his “ingenious plan” on the blackboard, like any television salesman and trigger, with the signature of his umpteenth executive order, on a little table like a white-collar apprentice like Mr. Bean, his next exit together with the global financial system from the Porta Libitinaria of the arena.
“Let Samson die with all the Philistines,” Mr. Hitler thought in his redoubt before committing suicide so as not to accept paying for the defeat of his crazy plan. Except that Mr. Hitler was not up to Samson, and neither is Mr. Trump.
The good news is that Europe is finally waking up from its lethargy, thanks to these blows below the belt, and, albeit with some uncertainty, is becoming aware of its growing need for restructuring and rebirth to assume the role that is due to it in the world assembly, and that for a century now it has delegated to other defenders who have now proven unreliable. Of course, the process will need further blows like those received so far. But we know that no one will ever be able to tolerate indefinitely receiving blows below the belt or on the teeth, because everyone has only one groin and one mouth, and even teeth are limited.
Mr. Trump has asserted his decision, and will surely continue to do so, like the drinker who denies the bottle against all evidence: “All the countries are calling us. It’s time to get rich.” He said with a final burst of pomposity to a crowd of journalists, those who kneel before him to participate in his briefings and who for this reason he graciously admits to kissing the slipper of pontifical memory, except that the pontiffs stopped having their feet kissed over a century ago. Certainly, the sensible rulers, although lacking the support of membership in a union, will have called him to try to reach an accommodation, supporting his obvious mafia tactic that tends to compromise. He will have to do it as soon as possible, because in the United States entrepreneurs are losing patience after having lost huge sums of stock capitalization.
Yesterday on Wall Street the stock of the electric car Tesla had become an electric submarine, having practically “sunk” to historic lows: Mr. Elon Musk had to admit an “unprecedented damage”. In general, the Dow Jones marked minus 5.5%, the Nasdaq minus 5.8% and the S&P minus 5.97%. The hook of the libitinariusis already ready to be attached to the gladiator’s belt to drag him to the funeral, the Porta Libitinaria is there waiting.
